Discussion of the Meyer-rasche and Taylor Papers

For us at this conference, the l970s constitute ten years of additional data and some theoretical developments that suggest new ways of interpreting those and earlier data. The two papers presented this morning -in part, because of the assignments given the authors —— contain very different views about the lessons of the 1970s. I will come to still a third view and, as it happens, one that does not represent a compromise between them. As I understand it, Meyer-Rasche accepted the task of summarizing lessons from the data of the l97Os, while Taylor accepted the task of surmiarizing lessons from the theoretical developments of the l970s. That division of labor did not turn out well; it encouraged Meyer-Rasche to proceed as if one could learn lessons from data without invoking theory. On the basis of the preliminary draft of the Meyer—Rasche paper made available to me and on the basis of their oral remarks this morning, I am left somewhat in the dark about the point of view of the Meyer-Rasche paper. I know what they did, but Pm not sure what their message is. Based on what they did, one might infer that for Meyer-Rasche, the l970s represent no more than ten years of additional data. They